Ekrem Imamoglu
| Photo Credit: AP
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Ekrem Imamoglu is the most popular opposition politician in Turkey. He first captured national attention when he won the mayoral elections in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, in 2019. Turkish authorities cancelled the election and ordered a revote. Mr. Imamoglu won it again, with a bigger margin. Mr. Imamoglu’s popularity and social democratic agenda helped the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which suffered back-to-back defeats ever since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2003, revive its fortunes. In last year’s local body elections, the party saw its best performance since the 1970s, while Mr. Imamoglu got re-elected as Istanbul’s Mayor. The CHP has been projecting him as its presidential candidate in the next election. Then on March 19, four days before the CHP was to hold a primary to officially nominate him as the party’s candidate, Mr. Imamoglu was detained over charges of corruption and helping terrorist groups. On March 23, he was formally arrested over corruption charges and moved to a jail. On the same day, some 15 million people voted for Mr. Imamoglu in the CHP primary, officially nominating him as the party’s presidential candidate.
Mr. Erdogan’s second term as President is coming to an end in 2028. He can’t run again as there is a two-term constitutional limit unless Parliament calls a snap election or the Constitution is amended again. Many believe that early elections are likely and Mr. Erdogan would be the candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Mr. Imamoglu is a formidable rival to Mr. Erdogan, who has ruled the country for over two decades with an iron fist. Hyper-inflation, economic slowdown and a tanking currency all dented Mr. Erdogan’s approval rating as well as his brand of neo-Islamist politics (a blend of Islamic conservatism, imperial Turkish nostalgia and pro-business economic policies). In opinion polls, Mr. Imamoglu took a lead over the all-powerful Mr. Erdogan. The CHP was reenergised by last year’s local body election results. Then Turkish prosecutors went after him.
Before his arrest, the Istanbul University, Mr. Imamoglu’s alma mater, had annulled his diploma, citing irregularities in his transfer from a university in Turkish controlled northern Cyprus in 1990. The Turkish Constitution warrants that the President should be a graduate. This means, if the University decision stands, he could be banned from contesting the presidential election. He will now have to spend months, if not years, in prison awaiting trial in the corruption case. The court says investigations are still on into his alleged support “for terrorist groups” (a reference to Kurdish political groups). So Mr. Erdogan has effectively put his most prominent rival in jail and slapped him with a host of cases. He knows that the regional and international atmosphere favours him. The U.S., under Donald Trump, doesn’t bother much about the domestic politics of Turkey. Europe’s response was also muffled as European nations expect Turkey to play a major role in the post-war security architecture of Ukraine. But Mr. Erdogan is facing pressure from the streets. Mr. Imamoglu’s arrest triggered massive protests across Turkey’s cities. The anger in the streets and the massive participation of voters in the primaries suggest that Mr. Imamoglu remains a force whether he is in the Istanbul Mayor’s office or Tayyip Erdogan’s jail.
West Asia is back on fire
The ceasefire in Gaza collapsed with Israel launching its massive bombing campaign in the enclave. More than 50,000 Palestinians were killed by Israel since the war began on October 7, 2023, according to Palestinian authorities. The ceasefire in Lebanon is also in shambles with Israel resuming bombing the country following a rocket attack. The U.S. is carrying out a bombing campaign in Yemen,targeting Houthis, while the Houthis have launched ballistic missile attacks at Israel. West Asia is back on fire. All these attacks are also linked.
As part of the ceasefire Israel reached with Hamas, Israeli troops were supposed to withdraw from Gaza in return for Hamas releasing more hostages in the second phase of the agreement. But Israel refused to pull back troops and demanded Hamas release more hostages. When Hamas said no, Israel started attacking Gaza again, and later launched a ground operation. As part of the ceasefire Israel agreed with Hezbollah, Israeli troops were to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israel first extended the deadline for withdrawal and later said it would not pull back troops. This led to clashes. The Houthis, who control half of Yemen, are one group that emerged relatively unscathed from this regional war. When Israel was going to resume attacking Gaza, it was clear that the Houthis would resume their campaign against Israel and commercial ships passing through the Red Sea. So the U.S. first carried out a “pre-emptive strike” in Yemen, aimed at blunting the Houthis’ fire power. The end result was a war that’s spread across the region. Israel continues to bomb like an arsonist. And America, whether under Joe Biden or Donald Trump, continues to back Israel like a committed patron.
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Published – March 25, 2025 12:25 pm IST